Executive Summary:
Al-Shabaab has continued to demonstrate a significant escalation in insurgent activity across Kenya and Somalia, with a marked increase in the frequency and intensity of attacks. In August 2024, Al-Shabaab significantly escalated their activities with a total of 69 recorded attacks across Kenya and Somalia. This marks a notable increase from July 2024, when about attacks were reported. The rise in attacks suggests a strategic intensification by Al-Shabaab, targeting both Kenyan and Somali forces with heightened aggression.
Al-Shabaab employed various attack methods, including Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), suicide bombings, and armed assaults. IEDs were the most frequently used weapon, appearing in 22 attacks. Suicide bombings occurred in 4 instances, and armed assaults were reported in 9 cases. Additionally, artillery was used in several attacks, indicating a diversified approach to their operations.
For Somalia, the most affected areas were Mogadishu, Lower Shabelle, Gedo, Bay, Middle Shabelle and Hiran. In Kenya, Mandera was targeted multiple times, reflecting a persistent focus on this region bordering Somalia. The aforementioned regions for both Kenya and Somalia saw repeated assaults, particularly on military bases and checkpoints. These areas have become recurrent focal points for Al-Shabaab’s operations.
In Kenya, attacks were concentrated in the northeastern regions, specifically Mandera and Garissa. The assaults involved IEDs and direct attacks on Kenyan military bases and security forces. Notable incidents included the raid on a Kenyan base in Lafi and the targeting of soldiers in Madax-Muruub. The organization continues to challenge Kenyan security forces in these areas.
In Somalia, Al-Shabaab’s activities were widespread, with Mogadishu, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Gedo being particularly hard-hit. The group’s operations included assaults on military bases, checkpoints, and civilian targets. Significant incidents involved coordinated attacks on ATMIS-Ugandan bases and Somali government forces, as well as high-profile attacks in Mogadishu. The consistent targeting of these areas underscores Al-Shabaab’s strategic focus on undermining both local and international military presence.
Terrorism Events:
Week 1- August 1st – August 8th
August 8, 2024 – Al-Shabaab executed a double-tap Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attack followed by an armed assault targeting Somali and Ugandan forces between Janale and Bofo, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
August 8, 2024 – Al-Shabaab raided a Kenyan Forces base in Lafi, Mandera, Northeastern Kenya, resulting in the death of one soldier.
August 7, 2024 – Al-Shabaab claims five Somali government forces surrendered after being ambushed in Hiran, Somalia.
August 7, 2024 – Al-Shabaab militants raided a Ugandan military base in Janale, Southern Somalia. Several were killed and injured.
August 7, 2024 – In a planned operation in the Bulo-Jameo area of Baydhaba city, Bay region, Al-Shabaab forces killed a number of SNA troops in the area.
August 6, 2024 – Al-Shabaab eliminated a Somali forces member and seized his weapon in Baidoa City, Bay, Southwestern Somalia.
August 6, 2024 – Al-Shabaab forces attacked ATMIS-Ethiopian forces’ base in Dinsoor district and a base of SNA troops in Goof-gaduud Buurey, near Baydhaba.
August 6, 2024 – Al-Shabaab forces launched a heavy attack on apostate militias in the Beledhawo district of Gedo province.
August 6, 2024 – Al-Shabaab launched a heavy attack on a Kenyan forces camp in the Dhamase area, Mandera region.
August 6, 2024 – Al-Shabaab killed and injured several Somali forces in an IED attack on their foot patrol in Bardere City, Gedo, Southwestern Somalia.
August 5, 2024 – Clashes between Al-Shabaab militants and security forces broke out in Ceelasha Biyaha, near Mogadishu, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
August 5, 2024 – Al-Shabaab militants targeted a military vehicle transporting fuel for the National Army with an IED in Garasbaaleey, Mogadishu, Somalia.
August 4, 2024 – Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces killed an apostate wanted by the group at the entrance to Hudur district, Bakool province, Somalia.
August 3, 2024 – A landmine explosion hit a civilian vehicle in Gololeey, Balcad District, traveling from Jowhar to Mogadishu. Eight people were aboard; only one survived.
August 2, 2024 – Al-Shabaab conducted a double-tap suicide bombing and armed assault on a restaurant and a hotel in Lido Beach, Mogadishu, Somalia, resulting in more than 20 dead and several injured.
August 2, 2024 – Al-Shabaab fighters carried out a heavy bombing operation targeting a government security checkpoint in Bafow, Lower Shabelle, injuring three Somali government soldiers.
Week 2: August 8th – August 15th.
August 15, 2024: Suspected Al-Shabaab militants abducted South Korean missionaries operating in Kenya near the Ethiopian border.
August 15, 2024: Al-Shabaab’s explosives unit executed an IED attack targeting Kenyan security forces in the El-Ramo area of Mandera County, Northern Frontier District (NFD).
August 14, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants conducted an explosion in Beled Hawo town, Gedo region, targeting a checkpoint manned by Somali National Army (SNA) forces, resulting in one soldier being injured.
August 14, 2024: Al-Shabaab launched a coordinated assault on the Baraxow camp controlled by SNA troops in Bardhere town, Gedo region.
August 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a roadside explosion that struck a convoy of Kenyan soldiers near Kamboni in Lamu County, destroying a military vehicle and resulting in casualties among the soldiers onboard.
August 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab reported a heavy assault on Ethiopian troops and Somali government forces in the Hiran region, with direct attacks on military bases in Halgan and Buulaburte.
August 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab assassinated a Kenyan Forces officer in Nani, Garissa, Kenya, as part of their ongoing campaign against high-ranking governmental and military personnel.
August 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have overrun a military base in Ilbaq, near Balcad, killing several government soldiers and capturing military ammunition. The Somali government has yet to respond to the attack.
August 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attacking Somali soldiers on foot near Balcad, Middle Shabelle.
August 11, 2024: Al-Shabaab’s explosive brigade in the Hiran region conducted two planned explosions at a control point held by Somali government troops in Jalalaqsi, resulting in the deaths of three SNA soldiers and injuries to four others.
August 10, 2024: Al-Shabaab forces carried out coordinated assaults on ATMIS-Ugandan troops in No/60 and on SNA troops in Awdheegle and Janale districts, Lower Shabelle.
August 9, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants in Banaadir conducted a bomb attack targeting Somali government troops, including intelligence agents (NISA) and military police, stationed at the Ceelasha-Biyaha junction on the outskirts of Mogadishu.
August 9, 2024: Suspected Al-Shabaab assassins killed a government soldier at the Isgooska Xoosh intersection in Mogadishu’s Dharkeynely district. The attackers reportedly fled the scene.
August 9, 2024: Al-Shabaab executed a double-tap IED and armed assault targeting Somali and Ugandan forces between Janale and Bofo in Lower Shabelle.
August 9, 2024: Al-Shabaab raided a Kenyan Forces base in Lafi, Mandera, Northeastern Kenya, resulting in the death of one soldier. The group continues operations against Kenyan and Somali forces.
August 9, 2024: Al-Shabaab carried out a suicide bombing operation targeting SNA troops near Shabelle University on the outskirts of Mogadishu, killing two government soldiers and injuring another member of the Riddada.
August 8, 2024: A bomb attack claimed by Al-Shabaab militants near Shabelle University on the outskirts of Mogadishu resulted in the deaths of two Somali government soldiers and injuries to one other.
Week 3: August 15th – August 22nd.
On August 22, 2024, Al-Shabaab’s artillery unit targeted the ATMIS-operated base at Dhuusamareeb Airport in a planned attack, reportedly achieving their objectives.
On August 22, 2024, Al-Shabaab forces attacked Ugandan military positions in Danow, Buurcolow, and Baraawe Airport in Lower Shabelle, demonstrating their persistent military activity across Somalia.
On August 22, 2024, Al-Shabaab militants set fire to a truck transporting civilians in Dhaankalle, southern Mudug, approximately 7 km from Camaara. The truck, a “Biijii” type vehicle, was en route to Gaalkacyo with food supplies. Local sources confirmed that the civilians aboard escaped upon realizing the militants were approaching.
On August 21, 2024, Al-Shabaab attempted assassinations of the Commander-in-Chief of the Prison Service Forces and the Police Commander of Baidoa using Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) in Baidoa, Bay, Somalia.
On August 21, 2024, Al-Shabaab killed eight Kenyan forces, injured nine others, and destroyed a military convoy with an IED in Kiunga City, Lamu, Kenya.
On August 21, 2024, Al-Shabaab shelled and ambushed five Somali, Ugandan, and Ethiopian military bases and a patrol in Hodar, Wajid, Janale, Jazeera, and Elbaq, covering Balaad, Bakool, Mogadishu, and Lower and Middle Shabelle regions in Somalia.
On August 21, 2024, Al-Shabaab kidnapped and executed three Jubaland Administration militias, including an intelligence member, in Kismayo City, Lower Juba, southern Somalia.
On August 20, 2024, Al-Shabaab fighters launched mortar shells at Baidoa Airport. Following the attack, heavy gunfire was exchanged, and the militants retreated.
On August 20, 2024, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for two coordinated car bombings in the Garasbaley area on the road linking Mogadishu and Afgoye, targeting a NISA security checkpoint and a security camp. At least five soldiers were killed in the blasts.
On August 19, 2024, a blast, believed to be caused by an IED, occurred near a security checkpoint in Baidoa’s Somafone neighborhood. Other sources indicate that the explosion took place in front of a house belonging to a senior Southwest police officer, but there have been no reports of injuries.
On August 17, 2024, Al-Shabaab launched coordinated attacks on the Riddada bases in Goof-gaduud Buurey, located in the South West State, near Baydhaba.
On August 17, 2024, an Al-Shabaab explosion, suspected to be an IED blast, occurred inside a popular restaurant in Mogadishu’s Dayniile district. Local sources reported that over ten civilians were killed and 15 others injured in the blast.
On August 17, 2024, a heavy gun battle took place in the Elasha-biyaha neighborhood on the outskirts of Mogadishu after Al-Shabaab militants attacked camps for military police units. Casualties remain unknown.
On August 16, 2024, at least nine Southwest regional troops were killed near Awdiinle town after their vehicle struck a landmine planted by Al-Shabaab fighters. Credible local sources reported that the blast completely destroyed the military vehicle. Both the dead and injured soldiers were transported to Baidoa town.
On August 15, 2024, Al-Shabaab executed a bombing operation in Beledxaawo, Gedo region, targeting a Riddada militia checkpoint. The attack resulted in injuries to one Riddada officer.
On August 15, 2024, Al-Shabaab’s explosive unit targeted Kenyan troops stationed in Ceel-raamo, Ceel-qaalow district, Mandheera region, resulting in reported injuries.
On August 15, 2024, Al-Shabaab conducted a coordinated direct assault on the Baraxow base of allied militias in Baardheere district, Gedo region.
Week 4: August 22nd – August 31st
On August 31, 2024, Al-Shabaab fighters targeted the Tabeelaha Sheekh Ibraahim market in Mogadishu’s Garasbaaley. Residents heard two large explosions before a fire engulfed the market. This attack followed Somali security forces urging businesses to install CCTV cameras, which Al-Shabaab opposed.
On August 31, 2024, Al-Shabaab fighters targeted Kenyan government soldiers stationed in the village of Madax-Muruub in Garissa County, who were guarding a well under construction.
On August 31, 2024, in Middle Shabelle, Al-Shabaab militants conducted an explosive operation targeting pro-government militia between Balcad and Qalimow, resulting in casualties.
On August 30, 2024, in Shabelle, Al-Shabaab launched a heavy assault on a government military base in the Arbacow area, near Mogadishu, shortly after the Fajr prayer.
On August 30, 2024, in Bay, Al-Shabaab targeted a Somali military base in Maaya-Fuulka, part of Baydhaba. These operations were part of their ongoing efforts against Somali government forces in the region.
On August 29, 2024, Al-Shabaab fighters launched a heavy assault on an ATMIS-Ugandan military base in Buulo-Mareer, Lower Shabelle region of southern Somalia. Injuries were reported.
On August 28, 2024, Al-Shabaab ambushed Kenyan security assets on patrol in the general vicinity of Mandera, Dhamase NEP prefectures. No details on casualties were provided, and the attempted probe was repelled.
On August 27, 2024, Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for coordinated attacks on SNA military bases in the Bay region, targeting locations in Maaya-Fuulka and Iidow Dhegaal within Baydhaba. Casualties were reported.
On August 27, 2024, in Bakool, Al-Shabaab attacked an ATMIS-Ethiopian military base in Hudur, leading to a prolonged clash. Injuries were reported.
On August 26, 2024, in the Lower Shabelle region, a targeted explosion by Al-Shabaab forces in Afgooye injured two soldiers from the Somali government.
On August 25, 2024, Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen forces targeted a vehicle, an Abdi Bile type, carrying militia members from Riddada in Tareedisho, near Mogadishu. The explosion resulted in the death of five Somali government soldiers and at least six others were injured. The vehicle was heavily damaged.
On August 25, 2024, in Barire, Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen forces targeted Somali troops in the area. The explosion killed one SNA soldier and injured another.
On August 24, 2024, in Hiilweyne, near Mogadishu, the artillery unit of Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen targeted the base of SNA troops in Hiilweyne, located on the outskirts of Mogadishu, specifically on the road connecting Mogadishu and Balcad. The artillery attack successfully hit the intended target, causing various damages to the troops.
On August 24, 2024, in Gololey, near Balcad, Middle Shabelle region, Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen forces carried out an explosive attack targeting Somali government troops in the area. The explosion resulted in the death of at least two SNA soldiers, with one more injured. The Mujahideen also seized a rifle and some ammunition.
On August 23, 2024, in Garbahaarey, Gedo region of Somalia, Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen forces conducted an explosive attack inside the Islamic administration in Gedo. The target was a house occupied by Riddada militia members, resulting in the injury of two government soldiers.
On August 23, 2024, in Ceel-Waaq, Gedo, Al-Shabaab forces carried out another explosive operation targeting a gathering place where Riddada members were assembled. This explosion resulted in the death of one soldier and injuries to at least three other soldiers.
On August 23, 2024, in Dhuusamareeb, Al-Shabaab’s artillery unit conducted a planned operation targeting a military base operated by SNA troops at the Dhuusamareeb airport. The operation was executed as planned and is part of ongoing military actions against the Riddada group and the regional administration allied with ATMIS partner forces.
On August 23, 2024, in Lower Shabelle region, Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen forces engaged in intense battles against ATMIS military bases, specifically targeting Ugandan troops stationed in Danow, Buurcolow, and Baraawe airport.
On August 22, 2024, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an attack targeting ATMIS troops in the general vicinity of Janale, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.
Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have overrun a military base in Ilbaq, near Balcad, Middle Shabelle.
Analysis, Observation & Insights.
In August 2024, terrorism activities in Kenya and Somalia saw a notable increase in frequency and intensity, primarily driven by Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group. Throughout the month, nearly 70 attacks were demonstrating a sharp rise in militant operations compared to the previous month. This surge reflects Al-Shabaab’s strategic escalation of violence and its persistent efforts to undermine regional security forces and government stability.
The attacks carried out by Al-Shabaab during August included a variety of tactics and target types. Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and suicide bombings were frequently used, showcasing a reliance on explosive methods to inflict maximum damage. The group also employed direct assaults, ambushes, and artillery attacks, revealing a diverse approach to achieving their operational goals. The preferred targets were military and security personnel, with a significant focus on Somali, Kenyan, and ATMIS forces. Civilian areas were not spared, as evidenced by attacks on markets and transportation vehicles.
Key regions affected by the escalation in attacks included regions in central and southern Somalia and Mandera, Garissa prefectures for Kenya. These areas consistently faced repeated assaults, indicating Al-Shabaab’s strategic focus on regions with significant military and logistical importance. The Lower Shabelle region, in particular, saw multiple heavy assaults and explosive operations targeting both local and international military bases. Mandera, located in Kenya’s northeastern region, was another hotspot, with multiple attacks on Kenyan forces underscoring the group’s transnational operational scope.
The increased frequency and variety of attacks also highlighted Al-Shabaab’s adaptation to counter-security measures. The group demonstrated a capacity to conduct coordinated assaults and carry out attacks on well-defended military positions. For instance, the successful ambush on Kenyan security forces guarding a well in Garissa County and the attack on an ATMIS-Ugandan base in Buulo-Mareer illustrate the group’s ability to execute complex operations against well-prepared targets.
Another significant observation is the group’s targeting of specific personnel and facilities. High-profile targets included government and military officials, with assassination attempts and attacks on military bases being common. The focus on high-ranking personnel and strategic military locations reflects a deliberate attempt to disrupt command structures and undermine operational effectiveness within the targeted forces.
In conclusion, August 2024 marked a period of intensified militant activity by Al-Shabaab in both Kenya and Somalia. The increase in attacks, their sophisticated execution, and the targeting of strategic and high-profile targets underscore a troubling trend of escalation. This surge in violence not only exacerbates regional instability but also challenges the counterterrorism efforts of affected nations and their international partners. A continued focus on intelligence-sharing, enhanced security measures, and regional cooperation will be essential in addressing and mitigating the threats posed by Al-Shabaab’s increasingly aggressive tactics.
