"Presence of Rwandan military" in eastern DRC: decryption of the silence of F. Tshisekedi and ambiguous words from J. Makelele Makelele
May 3, 2020
For weeks, months, despite the continuing rumors of the presence of Rwandan military in the provinces of North and South Kivu, the people of these lands have been waiting for the reaction of the DRC from above. Recently, some have even mentioned the "invasion" of Congolese territory by the Rwandan army. Kinshasa stayed inaudible. Or almost.
" With respect to the security situation following the restrictions taken following the proclamation of the state of health emergency, the Head of State invited the Government and all the services concerned to double vigilance, both inside and at our borders, to prevent any attempt to disturb public order and illegal foray into our territory whose borders remain closed to the passage of people. " (Report of the extraordinary meeting of the Council of Ministers of 17 April 2020). " Underground Incursion ": from where? Who is he referring to? We won't know any more. Unfortunately. Something to exacerbate.
The "investigation" that finally makes it react...
In these Meanwhile, Sonia Rolley publishes the results of her "investigation" of the alleged presence of the Rwandan army in both Kivu. A careful reading of this "survey" is enough to identify methodological weaknesses. That doesn't matter. In the background, what about the advanced facts? In Kinshasa, as if a instructions were given, it is indifference or what is similar to it. Contact by RFI, to give the official version, the Minister of Communication and Media, Government spokesperson, jolino Makelele, wants to be almost silent.
Better late than never. On 30 April 2020, the authorized voice of the Government explains on Top Congo radio: " There are no foreign troops in the proper sense of the term, that is, an organized army that comes with targeted well determined on Congolese soil ", he said. And to continue: " We can find ourselves in the face of elements of foreign troops, but there is no confirmation that these troops are indeed neighbours and that they have come with a clear mission. So we have to complete our investigations first. "
One thing is to say whether or not there are any Rwandan military in the eastern part of the country. Another to explain the reasons. Either Rwandan troops have been invited. Either they crossed the national border without being invited by the Congolese State. This would be a violation of territorial integrity, or even an act of aggression. We understand the discomfort in the Makelele's speech. "Not all truth is good to say".
One doubt: the words of the Government's spokesperson have not calmed the minds of the millions of Congolese people forced to drink until the bond of security problems in the eastern part of the country. On the contrary. Because, a few days earlier, on April 27, Paul Kagame said that " There is not a single soldier of the Rwandan Defense Forces who went to this territory.
Not a single one. The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo knows the facts. He knows that the Rwandan Defense Forces are not out there. ". If it is true that the Congolese Government " knows it ", why doesn't he explain it easily and quickly to crush the rumors and Turn off the counter-truths?
We expected the reaction of President Tshisekedi, new ally of Paul Kagame. In vain. To this day. Under the leadership of the two leaders, the DRC and Rwanda resumed their military cooperation last year.
As such, " We also gave information to the Congolese government and they started to act on the basis of some of the information we gave them, because they had the opportunity to check it and see what grew in the North Kivu. And they started operations against these groups such as FDLR and others, because they have multiple names ", added the President of Rwanda on 27 April. From sharing military intelligence to participating in operations, there is no ten thousand steps.
Two hypotheses...
Two hypotheses about the silence of President Tshisekedi and the ambiguous words of jolino Makelele. Either Congolese intelligence services have a lack of speed in the collection, ranking, processing and transmission of data to the decision maker on the security situation in the eastern part of the country.
Either this data has indeed been passed on to the decision maker whose confusion would be the basis of the aphonia and the ambiguity of the executive authority. The second hypothesis seems more likely to me. Because explicit recognition of the presence of Rwandan troops in Kivu or not to admit it clearly would not be without negative consequences for the Head of State.
To admit the presence of the Rwandan troops requires clarification of the Agreement between the two countries. Problem: the President of the Republic will have to prove that this matter is being submitted to the Council of Ministers and brought to the attention of both houses of Parliament. What reality is insane.
In addition, in view of the UN Security Council's sanctions regime to combat the institutionalization of armed violence in the DRC, the Congolese Government is required to notify the UN Sanctions Committee in advance of " arms delivery and related material, or to the provision of assistance or staff " (Resolution 2293, para. 3, point d of the United Nations Security Council).
Kinshasa is thus required to be transparent. In this connection, the's Non-aggression and mutual defence protocol provides: " Member States shall promote and strengthen their mutual defence by creating a climate of trust and good faith between themselves and their peoples through policy making, measures and mechanisms to strengthen good-neighborhood relations and multisectoral cooperation. " (Article 6 (5)).
This requires giving or procrastinating information to people and dialogue with them on facts that they can observe directly and understand without a sudden difficulty. Unfortunately, neither silence nor ambiguity contribute to the trust of Congolese people in the official speech on the presence of Rwandan military in the eastern DRC.
On the other hand, not specifically recognize the presence of Rwandan military in Kivu, it is, for the President of the Republic, exposing himself to the perseverance of the historical truth. Indeed, the United Nations Group of Experts on the DRC is expected to submit to the UN Security Council by 15 June 2020 its final report of investigations launched in August 2019 under the Resolution 2478 of 26 June 2019.
In its mid-term report to the Security Council in December 2019, the group of experts reported, among other things, the presence of Burundian troops in South Kivu. This, by waving the evidence provided by the Congolese side.
May 3, 2020
For weeks, months, despite the continuing rumors of the presence of Rwandan military in the provinces of North and South Kivu, the people of these lands have been waiting for the reaction of the DRC from above. Recently, some have even mentioned the "invasion" of Congolese territory by the Rwandan army. Kinshasa stayed inaudible. Or almost.
" With respect to the security situation following the restrictions taken following the proclamation of the state of health emergency, the Head of State invited the Government and all the services concerned to double vigilance, both inside and at our borders, to prevent any attempt to disturb public order and illegal foray into our territory whose borders remain closed to the passage of people. " (Report of the extraordinary meeting of the Council of Ministers of 17 April 2020). " Underground Incursion ": from where? Who is he referring to? We won't know any more. Unfortunately. Something to exacerbate.
The "investigation" that finally makes it react...
In these Meanwhile, Sonia Rolley publishes the results of her "investigation" of the alleged presence of the Rwandan army in both Kivu. A careful reading of this "survey" is enough to identify methodological weaknesses. That doesn't matter. In the background, what about the advanced facts? In Kinshasa, as if a instructions were given, it is indifference or what is similar to it. Contact by RFI, to give the official version, the Minister of Communication and Media, Government spokesperson, jolino Makelele, wants to be almost silent.
Better late than never. On 30 April 2020, the authorized voice of the Government explains on Top Congo radio: " There are no foreign troops in the proper sense of the term, that is, an organized army that comes with targeted well determined on Congolese soil ", he said. And to continue: " We can find ourselves in the face of elements of foreign troops, but there is no confirmation that these troops are indeed neighbours and that they have come with a clear mission. So we have to complete our investigations first. "
One thing is to say whether or not there are any Rwandan military in the eastern part of the country. Another to explain the reasons. Either Rwandan troops have been invited. Either they crossed the national border without being invited by the Congolese State. This would be a violation of territorial integrity, or even an act of aggression. We understand the discomfort in the Makelele's speech. "Not all truth is good to say".
One doubt: the words of the Government's spokesperson have not calmed the minds of the millions of Congolese people forced to drink until the bond of security problems in the eastern part of the country. On the contrary. Because, a few days earlier, on April 27, Paul Kagame said that " There is not a single soldier of the Rwandan Defense Forces who went to this territory.
Not a single one. The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo knows the facts. He knows that the Rwandan Defense Forces are not out there. ". If it is true that the Congolese Government " knows it ", why doesn't he explain it easily and quickly to crush the rumors and Turn off the counter-truths?
We expected the reaction of President Tshisekedi, new ally of Paul Kagame. In vain. To this day. Under the leadership of the two leaders, the DRC and Rwanda resumed their military cooperation last year.
As such, " We also gave information to the Congolese government and they started to act on the basis of some of the information we gave them, because they had the opportunity to check it and see what grew in the North Kivu. And they started operations against these groups such as FDLR and others, because they have multiple names ", added the President of Rwanda on 27 April. From sharing military intelligence to participating in operations, there is no ten thousand steps.
Two hypotheses...
Two hypotheses about the silence of President Tshisekedi and the ambiguous words of jolino Makelele. Either Congolese intelligence services have a lack of speed in the collection, ranking, processing and transmission of data to the decision maker on the security situation in the eastern part of the country.
Either this data has indeed been passed on to the decision maker whose confusion would be the basis of the aphonia and the ambiguity of the executive authority. The second hypothesis seems more likely to me. Because explicit recognition of the presence of Rwandan troops in Kivu or not to admit it clearly would not be without negative consequences for the Head of State.
To admit the presence of the Rwandan troops requires clarification of the Agreement between the two countries. Problem: the President of the Republic will have to prove that this matter is being submitted to the Council of Ministers and brought to the attention of both houses of Parliament. What reality is insane.
In addition, in view of the UN Security Council's sanctions regime to combat the institutionalization of armed violence in the DRC, the Congolese Government is required to notify the UN Sanctions Committee in advance of " arms delivery and related material, or to the provision of assistance or staff " (Resolution 2293, para. 3, point d of the United Nations Security Council).
Kinshasa is thus required to be transparent. In this connection, the's Non-aggression and mutual defence protocol provides: " Member States shall promote and strengthen their mutual defence by creating a climate of trust and good faith between themselves and their peoples through policy making, measures and mechanisms to strengthen good-neighborhood relations and multisectoral cooperation. " (Article 6 (5)).
This requires giving or procrastinating information to people and dialogue with them on facts that they can observe directly and understand without a sudden difficulty. Unfortunately, neither silence nor ambiguity contribute to the trust of Congolese people in the official speech on the presence of Rwandan military in the eastern DRC.
On the other hand, not specifically recognize the presence of Rwandan military in Kivu, it is, for the President of the Republic, exposing himself to the perseverance of the historical truth. Indeed, the United Nations Group of Experts on the DRC is expected to submit to the UN Security Council by 15 June 2020 its final report of investigations launched in August 2019 under the Resolution 2478 of 26 June 2019.
In its mid-term report to the Security Council in December 2019, the group of experts reported, among other things, the presence of Burundian troops in South Kivu. This, by waving the evidence provided by the Congolese side.
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