Monday, August 19, 2024

Will Rwanda accept to withdraw RDF from Congolese soil?Will the region's plan to neutralize the FDLR materialize?

While Kigali (Rwanda) has managed to obtain validation of the harmonized plan for the neutralization of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of Congo), the victim of an aggression according to the United Nations, is experiencing diplomatic difficulties in reaching an agreement on the disengagement of foreign forces on its territory, in particular the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF). On the sidelines of the 44th SADC summit, the mediator appointed by the African Union, Joao Lourenço, presented his mediation report to the Troika meeting of the SADC political, defense and security cooperation body, focused on the security crisis in eastern DRC. In his report to the region's leaders, he acknowledged that on this point "negotiations are at an impasse."


"I inform you that at the second ministerial meeting between the DRC and Rwanda, held on July 30, 2024 in Luanda, the parties agreed on a ceasefire at midnight on August 4, 2024. An agreement was also reached on the imperative need to implement the FDLR neutralization plan, the deployment of forces and the strengthening of the ad hoc verification mechanism with the integration of intelligence experts from the three countries and the possibility of involving other stakeholders. Following the decisions I just mentioned, the intelligence experts met in Luanda on the 7th and 8th of this month and together developed the Harmonized Plan for the Neutralization of the FDLR, despite an impasse in the development of the disengagement of forces in the operational theater," said João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço in his speech published on the Facebook account of the Angolan Presidency.


Despite the impasse, the mediator appointed by the African Union in the security crisis has expressed optimism about a successful outcome for the return of peace in eastern DRC and the region. João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço notes a willingness on the part of Kinshasa and Kigali to resolve the conflict through negotiation. "This situation is at the forefront of our attention and, therefore, we will continue to work with both parties to reach an agreement on the disengagement of forces. For peace to be effective, permanent and lasting, I travelled to Kigali and Kinshasa on 11 and 12 August respectively to have a conversation with HE President Paul Kagame and HE President Félix Tshisekedi, to whom I presented a proposal for a peace agreement," he said in his speech.


And he continued: "In the conversation with the two heads of state mentioned, I perceived a great political will on their part in resolving the conflict through negotiation and, in accordance with this, we have already scheduled for next August 20 a ministerial meeting of discussion and negotiation in Luanda within the framework of the terms of the proposed peace agreement, to be signed, at the best opportunity, in the presence of the three heads of state: the DRC, Rwanda and Angola."


Furthermore, João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço said he had noted that the region is now working diligently with the United Nations to ensure MONUSCO's support for the reinforced ad hoc mechanism for the implementation of the ceasefire. "I consider it appropriate to inform Your Excellencies that we have begun to work diligently with the United Nations, to ensure MONUSCO's support for the activities of the reinforced ad hoc mechanism, whose mandate will be crucial for the implementation of the ceasefire, the neutralization of the FDLR and the disengagement of forces. I would like to take this opportunity to commend the efforts of our Region which, through the implementation of the SADC Mission in the DRC, has played a decisive role in supporting the government of this country, a member of our Community, in the quest to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity," he said in his statement.


A new ministerial meeting between the DRC and Rwanda will take place in Luanda on 20 and 21 August. This meeting, preceded by an expert session, follows the recent steps taken by Angolan President João Lourenço, appointed mediator by the African Union, who travelled to Kigali and Kinshasa on 11 and 12 August to present a proposal for a peace agreement to Presidents Paul Kagame and Félix Tshisekedi. The Luanda meeting will mainly aim to discuss this peace proposal, with a view to reaching a negotiated and lasting solution to the conflict that has been ravaging eastern DRC since the end of 2023, the Angolan presidency announced. The Angolan president, who plays a central role in this process, has already initiated in-depth talks with Congolese and Rwandan leaders, seeking to restore confidence between the parties.


In the theatre of operations, we also observe a status quo where the M23 forces, supported by Kigali, have increased their zones of influence in the province of North Kivu. On the side of the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo, the reaction is struggling to be felt, despite the recent establishment of a security task force under the leadership of Félix Tshisekedi, following the incidents in the city of Kanyabayonga and other localities in the territory of Lubero (North Kivu).

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