Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, and DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists for the period of 1st October- 15th October 2024

Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, and DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists for the period of 1st October- 15th October 2024

Executive Summary

Between October 1 and October 15, 2024, significant developments in counter-terrorism efforts were observed across Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Somalia. In Mozambique, the situation remains precarious, with the resurgence of violence from Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) despite ongoing military operations by Rwandan forces. The recent uptick in clashes has heightened local fears and underscores the complexities of stabilizing Cabo Delgado, particularly after years of insurgency.

In the DRC, the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) achieved notable successes against the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP). Collaborative military efforts with the Uganda People’s Defense Forces (UPDF) have demonstrated potential, yet the ongoing violations against children, including abductions and recruitment, complicate the security landscape and call for urgent humanitarian interventions.

Somalia presents a contrasting challenge, as the Islamic State has doubled its presence, raising concerns about the group’s growing influence and capacity to attract foreign fighters. The survival of its leader, Abdulqadir Mumin, after a U.S. airstrike indicates the resilience of the organization amidst a volatile environment.

Overall, while there are notable military advancements in combating terrorist threats, the simultaneous rise in violence and recruitment activities signals a concerning lull in effective counter-terrorism strategies. The necessity for a multi-faceted approach that includes humanitarian support, community engagement, and long-term stability initiatives is critical to countering these escalating threats across the region.

MOZAMBIQUE

04th Oct- Suspected ISM militants captured and executed a Christian resident in Man’Guna in Palma, Cabo Delgado Province.

14th Oct– ISM militants claimed that they detonated two explosive devices on patrols of the Mozambican and Rwandan armies, between the villages of Manica and Napala, in the Macomia district, which damaged an armored vehicle and injured several soldiers.

14th Oct– Farmers from Macomia, in Cabo Delgado, reported intense clashes in recent days between the military and alleged terrorist groups operating in the region, causing fear among the population.

D.R. CONGO

01st Oct– ISCAP militants captured and executed a Christian in Mambelenga, Ituri Province.

01st Oct- FARDC said that they killed 27 ISCAP fighters, captured 37 others and freed hostages in the Biakato forest in Mambasa territory during the month of September in Ituri.

03rd Oct– ISCAP militants captured and executed 15 Christians, in Anditongo, Mambasa, Ituri Province.

03rd Oct– at least 10 people killed after ISCAP militants led armed assault on the Christian Village, of in Ofaye Otto Maber, Ituri Province.

13TH Oct– Three ISCAP fighters were killed and an AK-47 weapon was recovered during clashes with FARDC-UPDF coalition near the towns of Mangadi and Mabutuwa, in the Bapere sector, Lubero territory.

07TH Oct- ISCAP militants attacked the villages of Makilima and Makoko in the chiefdom of Babila Babombi (Mambasa territory), where they killed at least three civilians.

ANALYSIS AND INSIGHTS

Mozambique

Rwanda recently sent additional reinforcements to Mucojo in Macomia District, Cabo Delgado, Mozambique. This deployment is part of Rwanda’s ongoing military operations to combat the Islamist insurgency that has plagued the region since 2017. The reinforcements, estimated at around 500 troops, are expected to establish a new base in the coastal town of Mucojo, which has seen frequent clashes between Mozambican forces and insurgents. The move comes amid a resurgence of violence by insurgent groups, some of which are linked to Islamic State.

The European Union recently approved a €20 million aid package to support Rwandan forces deployed in northern Mozambique. This financial backing comes after lengthy negotiations in Brussels, where Rwanda agreed to ensure the funds would be used exclusively for operations in Cabo Delgado. The money will primarily assist in the logistics and equipping of Rwandan troops, who have been vital in combating insurgents in the region since their deployment in July 2021. This support aligns with the EU’s broader commitment to counter-terrorism and restoring stability in Mozambique, a region that has seen increased violence due to Islamist insurgencies. Rwanda had been financing its own military operations in Mozambique, and this aid from the EU comes as a crucial boost to sustain these efforts.

After five months of closure of health facilities in Macomia District due to the terrorist attack on May 10 this year, the health facility at the District headquarters has finally reopened. The reopening brings relief to the local population, who were facing serious difficulties in accessing essential medical care. This milestone represents a new chapter for residents, especially pregnant women, who were forced to give birth in precarious and dangerous conditions in their own homes.

Somalia

Islamic State in Somalia has approximately doubled in size over the past year, with numbers increasing from an estimated 200 fighters to around 400, according to AFRICOM commander Gen. Michael Langley. He expressed concern over ISIS’s growing presence in northern Somalia, particularly in Puntland, and warned about the possibility of the group increasing its foreign fighter numbers. Abdulqadir Mumin, the leader of ISIS in Somalia, survived a U.S. airstrike in May and is now considered a credible potential global leader of ISIS. The expansion of ISIS in Somalia poses a growing threat, especially as it seeks to exploit regional instability alongside al-Shabab, another militant group in the country. Concerns are mounting about ISIS attracting more foreign fighters and collaborating with other extremist elements.

DRC

ISCAP has emerged as a significant perpetrator of violence against children in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with 37 documented violations in August 2024. This is according to a report by the United Nations Joint Human Rights Office (UNJHRO) and MONUSCO’s Child Protection Section. The group’s involvement in abductions, recruitment of child soldiers, and other grave violations reflects its long-standing strategy of terrorizing local populations, particularly in the eastern provinces like North Kivu and Ituri. The ISCAP’s increasing use of children not only fuels their insurgency but also deepens instability in the region. Their connection to transnational terror networks, including alleged ties to ISIS, complicates efforts to counter their influence, making them a major concern for both local and international actors seeking to stabilize the region.

The joint assessment of Shujaa operations by the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) and the Uganda People’s Defense Forces (UPDF) on October 10-11, 2024, highlighted significant advances against the ISCAP. Lieutenant-General Kayanja Muhanga emphasized the need for ongoing collaboration to combat the ISCAP and its affiliates, particularly the ISCAP terrorist faction.

Lieutenant-General Kayanja Muhanga’s remarks underline the importance of continued cooperation between the DRC and Uganda to tackle not only the ISCAP but also its affiliated groups, specifically the ISCAP terrorist faction. This commitment, reinforced by the recent meeting between military leaders, reflects a broader geopolitical strategy to restore stability in the region, which has been plagued by violence and humanitarian crises. The collaboration signals a recognition of the interconnectedness of regional security and the necessity for sustained military and intelligence efforts. However, the effectiveness of these operations will depend on the ability to maintain momentum and adapt strategies to address the ISCAP’s evolving tactics. Continued support from both governments will be crucial in ensuring a long-term resolution to the threat posed by the ADF and its affiliates.

Conclusion

The period from October 1 to October 15, 2024, reflects a complex landscape of counter-terrorism efforts and rising threats in East and Central Africa. Despite recent military successes in the DRC and Rwanda’s renewed commitment in Mozambique, the activities of IS affiliates highlight a troubling lull in effective counter-insurgency operations.

In Mozambique, the resurgence of violence and civilian casualties underscores the fragility of military gains and the urgent need for comprehensive strategies that encompass not only military action but also community engagement and humanitarian support. The European Union’s financial assistance is crucial but must be coupled with clear objectives to ensure its effectiveness in stabilizing Cabo Delgado.

In the DRC, while military collaboration shows promise, the exploitation of children by ISCAP remains a grave concern that undermines the region’s security and social fabric. The documented violations signal an escalating humanitarian crisis that demands immediate attention and intervention from local and international actors.

Finally, in Somalia, the doubling of IS forces presents a significant challenge to regional stability, particularly with the potential for ISIS to forge alliances with al-Shabab. This evolving threat necessitates a multi-faceted approach involving intelligence sharing, enhanced military coordination, and counter-radicalization efforts to address the root causes of extremism.

In summary, while there have been notable military successes against terrorist groups, the observed lull in effective counter-terrorism measures and the ongoing recruitment of fighters call for a renewed focus on comprehensive strategies that address both immediate security needs and long-term stability in the region. The current dynamics in East and Central Africa reflect a troubling intersection of military successes and rising threats from Islamic State affiliates. The urgency for cohesive strategies that integrate military efforts with humanitarian and community-based approaches is paramount. Only through sustained collaboration among regional actors and comprehensive initiatives can the region hope to navigate the complexities of counter-terrorism and restore lasting peace and stability.