The Al-Qaeda affiliate
militant group, Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM) commonly known as
Al-Shabaab continue to escalate attacks in East Africa, especially in Kenya and
Somalia. Somalia has been fighting the Al-Shabaab jihadist insurgency for well over
a decade and even with support from allies militarily, the jihadist group is
not fully degraded.
Al-Shabaab’s deadly
insurgency continues with no end in sight. The Islamist militant group
consistently tries to keep up with local and regional military operations. The
militant group has exploited a number of loopholes to step up attacks. Combined
with dysfunction and division among their adversaries, the militants’ agility
has enabled its operatives to embed themselves in Somali society. It also makes
them hard and elusive to defeat.
In the month under
review, the Islamist militant group has escalated attacks against military
positions, government officials as well targeting on civilians. The surge in
Al-Shabaab attacks has been noted especially in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu and
localities in central and southern Somalia.
Notably,
counterterrorism assets at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) have recorded at least
57 for Kenya and Somalia. Somalia the home-base of Al-Shabaab has taken
the largest share of these attacks. Attack patterns in Somalia remains almost
the same, mostly occurring in central and southern Somalia. Most these attacks
are notably repeat attacks, especially the ones targeted at Forward Operating
Bases (FOBs) and military convoys.
Thus, threat posture
continues to be skewed towards military operating bases and their patrols
convoys besides military convoys on supply missions especially for Somalia.
Most of the raids against the targets are notably ambushes and setting up of
roadside IEDs with a number of repeat attacks being recorded. Assassination
attempts on key officials also witnessed in Mogadishu and its environs as well
as resumption of suicide operations.
Al-Shabaab has proven
resilient, adjusting to counter-insurgency campaigns and entrenching itself
deeper in parts of Somali society. Al-Shabaab militants still retains control
over large swathes of rural Somalia and persistently mount attacks in urban
centers a confirmation of the group’s resilient despite counter-operations on
the group by coalition security operators and hurriedly claiming credit for the
overly exaggerated operations for warfare purposes.
For Kenya, another key
target of the Islamist Al-Shabaab, the militant group continue to stage
low-scale attacks in an attempt to disrupt the calmness that has been witnessed
for a number of months. The militant group is keen on disrupting the frontier
counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) by emplacing IEDs on main roads and
MSRs in an effort to target security assets on patrol missions.
most wanted Al-Shabaab leaders & the group’s
elusive intelligence chief, Mahad Karate ON THE RIGHT, who has $5 million bounty on his head
AS Recently Claimed
Attacks: June 1st –
June 14th
§ On June 1st, Emerging reports in
Mogadishu indicate that Major Salad Ishaq Yusuf, a senior Somali government
official, escaped unhurt in an IED explosion in Daynile district, killing at
least one of his bodyguards and wounding five others. Al-Shabaab claimed
responsibility for the attack, few hours after the attack.
§ On June 1st, Al-Shabaab claimed to
have detonated an IED targeting a Somali National Army (SNA) convoy in
Mogadishu. The IED killed one soldier, wounded one other, and wounded two civilians
as per local sources.
§ On June 1st,
heavily armed Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have attacked an AMISOM and
Somali government base in Barire area of Lower Shabelle, but no casualties were
reported.
§ On June 2nd,
A car bomb exploded in the general vicinity of Daynile, Mogadishu, killing at
least two police officers and wounding several others. Al-Shabaab claimed
responsibility for the targeted IED explosion through radio Andalus.
§ On June 2nd,
Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassination of a Turkish Embassy
staffer in Mogadishu. The staffer was also an electoral delegate.
§ On June 2nd,
Al-Shabaab claimed to have launched attacks against Kenyan security troops on
the outskirts of Garissa town. Using light weapons, the militants claimed to
have attacked Ura Madow camp and also ambushed the convoy was traveling from
the military camp towards Bura, Tana River County.
§ On June 6th,
Al-Shabaab claimed to have detonated an improvised explosive device (IED)
targeting a Kenyan police convoy and a lawmaker near Sangaliu, Garissa County,
eastern Kenya. The targeted police convoy was traveling from Masalani, Tana
River County, eastern Kenya, to Sangaliu, Garissa County. Local officials
claimed the IED caused fatalities from the Critical Infrastructure Protection
Unit.
§ On June 6th,
Al-Shabaab assassinated a Burundian African Union Transition Mission in Somalia
(ATMIS) soldier in Balad, Middle Shabelle region, central Somalia.
§ On June 6th,
Al-Shabaab claims to have killed some Kenyan security officers, injured others
following a roadside bomb attack on a police vehicle in Lamu county of Kenya.
§ On June 9th,
at least four Somali Soldiers have been injured after a vehicle they were
travelling in was hit by an improvised explosive device (IED) outside the
Somali capital, Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the IED blast
via its media.
§ On June 9th,
several explosions, believed to be mortar rounds, heard near Mogadishu airport
amidst lockdown as the Somali capital hosted foreign delegations who attended
the inauguration of new Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
§ On June 9th,
Al-Shabaab militants detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting a
US-trained Danab special forces convoy in Gululei, Bal’ad district, Middle
Shabelle region, south-central Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the IED killed
fifteen soldiers. The convoy was traveling from Mogadishu to Jowhar.
§ On June 11th,
Deadly clashes between Puntland security forces and Al-Shabaab militants
reported in Bossaso. Corresponding local sources reported that two people were
killed in the clashes in Bossaso, northern Somalia, one of them a security
officer and the other a civilian.
§ On June 11th,
Al-Shabaab militants took credit for detonating an improvised explosive device
(IED) targeting police officers in Badbaado internally displaced peoples camp,
Dharkenley district, Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed that the IED killed seven
police officers at a police station while Local officials claimed the IED
killed two police officers at a tea shop.
§ On June 12th,
Al-Shabaab claimed a brief attempted probe on ATMIS military base operated by
the Kenyan troops in Hosingow, Lower Juba. No details on casualties were
provided.
§ On June 12th,
Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a direct attack on ATMIS-Ugandan operating
base in Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia, but no casualties were
reported.
§ On June 13th,
suspected Al-Shabaab assassins reportedly shot and killed a prominent elder
outside his house in the morning in Mogadishu’s Bar-Ubah neighborhood. Warsame
Ismail is said to have been approached by people armed with pistols, who fired
several rounds at him before fleeing the scene.
§ On June 14th,
Al-Shabaab claimed the killing of two Burundian soldiers serving under ATMIS in
the outskirt of Bala’d district in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region. Notably,
claimed that they have used snipers, according to the affiliate accounts of the
group.
Attacks
from June 14th – June 30th
§ On June 15th,
Al-Shabaab militants raided a Kenyan African Union Transition Mission in
Somalia (ATMIS) base in Kulbiyow, Badhadhe district, Lower Jubba region,
southern Somalia. The brief probe was successfully repulsed and no casualties
were reported.
§ On June 16th,
Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for an attempted ambush on a KDF
election security convoy near Riba, Wajir County, northeastern Kenya. No
casualties were reported.
§ On June 16th,
Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have raided a Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) base
in Kiunga, Lamu County, eastern Kenya. No casualties were reported.
§ On June 17th,
Al-Shabaab, Ahlu Sunna wa al Jama’a (ASWJ) militia fighters and regional forces
clashed in Badho village, Adado district, Galgudud region, central Somalia.
Warring sides reported successes. The defending forces claimed to kill at least
67 al Shabaab militants, wound at least 33 more, and capture a suicide vehicle
improvised explosive device (VBIED) and the driver and Al-Shabaab claimed to
have killed 27 defending forces.
§ On June 19th,
Al-Shabaab claimed to briefly captured Rhamu, Mandera County, NEP and lectured
locals.s
§ On June 20th,
Al-Shabaab terrorists stormed and overran El-Bur district hospital in Galgadud
region and forcibly discharged all the patients including malnourished children
and pregnant women to hospitalize 80 of their members who were wounded in
Friday’s Bahdo fighting as per State Media.
§ On June 21st,
Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have detonated an improvised explosive device
targeting a communications tower in Rhamu, Mandera County, NEP Kenya.
§ On June 22nd,
Civilian casualties were reported as a result of a roadside bomb attack on the
outskirts of Kismayo, especially between the Bar area and the area known as
Barbara. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility saying it targeted Somali government
troops.
§ On June 23rd,
Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for detonating an improvised
explosive device targeting a Turkish-trained Gorgor special forces convoy in
Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.
§ O June 23rd,
Al-Shabaab claimed to have shot and killed a Burundian soldier guarding a
military base in general vicinity of Mahaday district of Middle Shabelle and
wounded one other.
§ On June 24th,
Al-Shabaab militants stopped a bus heading to Mandera, Kenya from Nairobi and
searched for non-locals on Friday. The militants also lectured passengers in
Somali language for 2-hours.
§ On June 25th,
Al-Shabaab claimed an operation on SNA operated base in the general vicinity of
Dharkenley district of Mogadishu where two soldiers of Federal Government were
killed.
§ On June 25th,
Al-Shabaab claimed to have targeted and killed a government official identified
as Hussein Hassan Gurey in the general vicinity of Afgoye, Lower Shabelle
region.
§ On June 27th,
Al-Shabaab militants raided three Jubbaland State security forces bases in Buda
Dariq, Garaska and Sangaleer, Kismayo district, Lower Jubba region, southern
Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed to kill at least eight soldiers in the attacks
§ On June 27th,
at least three SNA soldiers were killed and several others, including two
journalists, wounded in a landmine blast in Qabno areas of the Mataban district
in the Hiran region on Monday. The attack targeted convoy that carrying the
governor of the Hiran region and army officials.
§ On June 27th,
Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a direct gun attack on government troops
in general vicinity of Daynunay village on the outskirts of Baidoa, Bay region
of Somalia killing two soldiers.
§ On June 29th,
Al-Shabaab claimed to have conducted mortar shelling and direct attacks on SNA
Defense post killing one government soldier in the general vicinity of Weydow,
west of the Somalia capital Mogadishu.
§ On June 29th,
In the Lower Jubba region, the Islamist militant claimed to have launched a
major offensive against ATMIS base operated by the Kenyan troops in Taabto area
but no casualties were reported.
§ On June 30th,
reports from Middle Shabelle indicated that Al-Shabaab jihadist fighters blew
up the house of a former minister in the self-proclaimed Hirshabelle
administration in Jowhar town.
§ On June 30th,
Al-Shabaab fighters claimed responsibility for targeting the base of the
Puntland forces in Galgala area of Bossaso. The fighters claimed to have fired
several rounds of mortar shells causing casualties of five soldiers and damage
of military property.
Assessments/Observations
& Insights
Despite
many years of sustained counterterrorism pressure, Somali forces supported by
allied AMISOM partners and the U.S, the terrorist threat in East Africa is not
degraded. Instead, Al-Shabaab has adopted guerilla tactics and managed to
consolidate control of rural areas, while regularly conducting deadly attacks
on Somali cities.
Notably
the Al-Qaeda associated Al-Shabaab continue to position itself as an
alternative authority in Somalia coming up with some interventions such as
education, humanitarian interventions and latest being the construction of a
hospital. Al-Shabaab claimed to have built and opened a new state of the art
Hospital, which includes a Maternity Ward in the Al-Shabaab controlled town of
Jilib in the Middle Jubba province of Somalia which will be open for the
locals. These interventions are clever ways/strategies by the jihadist group to
woo Somali masses to their side/fold.
Al-Shabaab claims credit of having
built and opened a new state of the art Hospital, which includes a Maternity
Ward in the Al-Shabaab controlled town of Jilib in the Middle Jubba province of
Somalia.
Notably,
an average of at least one or two attacks are recorded from across the regions
of Somalia. Regions mostly targeted in frequent attacks include the capital and
the ones in central and southern Somalia where the militant group maintains
quite some control. As for Kenya, retaliatory and disruptive incidents linked
to Al-Shabaab are also being reported along the volatile border prefectures
with Somalia especially; Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu. CT assets in those
prefectures continue to be alert, reporting few cases on attempted probes and
enemy signatures.
Al-Kataib
and Radio Andalus has continually over exaggerated on the number of operations
it has conducted in East Africa as well as number of fatalities/casualties
caused. Preferred attack types remain the use of IEDs, landmines and roadside
bombs. Ambush raids are also gaining traction on the military targets. However,
the Islamist militant group through its propaganda media channels. Recently
Al-Shabaab propaganda media wing released a video showcasing its recent
operations from across Somalia theaters, ranging from small scale to complex
operations especially on military positions (Convoys and FOBs).
Conclusion
Continuous
monitoring, surveillance and scouting encouraged several meters away from
forward operating bases/police outpost for both Kenya and Somalia. Al-Shabaab
ultimate goals is to stage attacks on FOBs and Defense Posts, as such
counterterrorism assets advised to observe convoy discipline citing Al-Shabaab
continuous IED contamination on Military Supply Routes (MSRs).
Counterterrorism
assets especially for Kenya have been able to sustain robust counteroperations
against the Islamist Al-Shabaab waging surprise attacks in prefectures
bordering Somalia. However, counterterrorism operators urged to be alert,
collaborate with locals to get the much-needed HUMINT in an attempt to thwart
attacks in the future. Threat posture, remains skewed towards military
operating bases and defense posts proximal to the border with Somalia, thus
security troops/patrol teams are highly advised to maintain an offensive
posture.
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