The Al-Qaeda affiliate militant group, Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM) commonly known as Al-Shabaab continue to escalate attacks in East Africa, especially in Kenya and Somalia. Somalia has been fighting the Al-Shabaab jihadist insurgency for well over a decade and even with support from allies militarily, the jihadist group is not fully degraded.

Al-Shabaab’s deadly insurgency continues with no end in sight. The Islamist militant group consistently tries to keep up with local and regional military operations. The militant group has exploited a number of loopholes to step up attacks. Combined with dysfunction and division among their adversaries, the militants’ agility has enabled its operatives to embed themselves in Somali society. It also makes them hard and elusive to defeat.

In the month under review, the Islamist militant group has escalated attacks against military positions, government officials as well targeting on civilians. The surge in Al-Shabaab attacks has been noted especially in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu and localities in central and southern Somalia.

Notably, counterterrorism assets at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) have recorded at least 57 for Kenya and Somalia.  Somalia the home-base of Al-Shabaab has taken the largest share of these attacks. Attack patterns in Somalia remains almost the same, mostly occurring in central and southern Somalia. Most these attacks are notably repeat attacks, especially the ones targeted at Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) and military convoys.

Thus, threat posture continues to be skewed towards military operating bases and their patrols convoys besides military convoys on supply missions especially for Somalia. Most of the raids against the targets are notably ambushes and setting up of roadside IEDs with a number of repeat attacks being recorded. Assassination attempts on key officials also witnessed in Mogadishu and its environs as well as resumption of suicide operations.

Al-Shabaab has proven resilient, adjusting to counter-insurgency campaigns and entrenching itself deeper in parts of Somali society. Al-Shabaab militants still retains control over large swathes of rural Somalia and persistently mount attacks in urban centers a confirmation of the group’s resilient despite counter-operations on the group by coalition security operators and hurriedly claiming credit for the overly exaggerated operations for warfare purposes.

For Kenya, another key target of the Islamist Al-Shabaab, the militant group continue to stage low-scale attacks in an attempt to disrupt the calmness that has been witnessed for a number of months. The militant group is keen on disrupting the frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) by emplacing IEDs on main roads and MSRs in an effort to target security assets on patrol missions.

 most wanted Al-Shabaab leaders & the group’s elusive intelligence chief, Mahad Karate ON THE RIGHT, who has $5 million bounty on his head

AS Recently Claimed Attacks: June 1^st – June 14^th

§  On June 1^st, Emerging reports in Mogadishu indicate that Major Salad Ishaq Yusuf, a senior Somali government official, escaped unhurt in an IED explosion in Daynile district, killing at least one of his bodyguards and wounding five others. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack, few hours after the attack.

§  On June 1^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have detonated an IED targeting a Somali National Army (SNA) convoy in Mogadishu. The IED killed one soldier, wounded one other, and wounded two civilians as per local sources.

§  On June 1^st, heavily armed Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have attacked an AMISOM and Somali government base in Barire area of Lower Shabelle, but no casualties were reported.

§  On June 2^nd, A car bomb exploded in the general vicinity of Daynile, Mogadishu, killing at least two police officers and wounding several others. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the targeted IED explosion through radio Andalus.

§  On June 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassination of a Turkish Embassy staffer in Mogadishu. The staffer was also an electoral delegate.

§  On June 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have launched attacks against Kenyan security troops on the outskirts of Garissa town. Using light weapons, the militants claimed to have attacked Ura Madow camp and also ambushed the convoy was traveling from the military camp towards Bura, Tana River County.

§  On June 6^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting a Kenyan police convoy and a lawmaker near Sangaliu, Garissa County, eastern Kenya. The targeted police convoy was traveling from Masalani, Tana River County, eastern Kenya, to Sangaliu, Garissa County. Local officials claimed the IED caused fatalities from the Critical Infrastructure Protection Unit.

§  On June 6^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated a Burundian African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) soldier in Balad, Middle Shabelle region, central Somalia.

§  On June 6^th, Al-Shabaab claims to have killed some Kenyan security officers, injured others following a roadside bomb attack on a police vehicle in Lamu county of Kenya.

§  On June 9^th, at least four Somali Soldiers have been injured after a vehicle they were travelling in was hit by an improvised explosive device (IED) outside the Somali capital, Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the IED blast via its media.

§  On June 9^th, several explosions, believed to be mortar rounds, heard near Mogadishu airport amidst lockdown as the Somali capital hosted foreign delegations who attended the inauguration of new Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

§  On June 9^th, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting a US-trained Danab special forces convoy in Gululei, Bal’ad district, Middle Shabelle region, south-central Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the IED killed fifteen soldiers. The convoy was traveling from Mogadishu to Jowhar.

§  On June 11^th, Deadly clashes between Puntland security forces and Al-Shabaab militants reported in Bossaso. Corresponding local sources reported that two people were killed in the clashes in Bossaso, northern Somalia, one of them a security officer and the other a civilian.

§  On June 11^th, Al-Shabaab militants took credit for detonating an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting police officers in Badbaado internally displaced peoples camp, Dharkenley district, Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed that the IED killed seven police officers at a police station while Local officials claimed the IED killed two police officers at a tea shop.

§  On June 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a brief attempted probe on ATMIS military base operated by the Kenyan troops in Hosingow, Lower Juba. No details on casualties were provided.

§  On June 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a direct attack on ATMIS-Ugandan operating base in Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia, but no casualties were reported.

§  On June 13^th, suspected Al-Shabaab assassins reportedly shot and killed a prominent elder outside his house in the morning in Mogadishu’s Bar-Ubah neighborhood. Warsame Ismail is said to have been approached by people armed with pistols, who fired several rounds at him before fleeing the scene.

§  On June 14^th, Al-Shabaab claimed the killing of two Burundian soldiers serving under ATMIS in the outskirt of Bala’d district in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region. Notably, claimed that they have used snipers, according to the affiliate accounts of the group.

Attacks from June 14^th – June 30^th

§  On June 15^th, Al-Shabaab militants raided a Kenyan African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) base in Kulbiyow, Badhadhe district, Lower Jubba region, southern Somalia. The brief probe was successfully repulsed and no casualties were reported.    

§  On June 16^th, Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for an attempted ambush on a KDF election security convoy near Riba, Wajir County, northeastern Kenya. No casualties were reported.

§  On June 16^th, Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have raided a Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) base in Kiunga, Lamu County, eastern Kenya. No casualties were reported.

§  On June 17^th, Al-Shabaab, Ahlu Sunna wa al Jama’a (ASWJ) militia fighters and regional forces clashed in Badho village, Adado district, Galgudud region, central Somalia. Warring sides reported successes. The defending forces claimed to kill at least 67 al Shabaab militants, wound at least 33 more, and capture a suicide vehicle improvised explosive device (VBIED) and the driver and Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 27 defending forces.

§  On June 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to briefly captured Rhamu, Mandera County, NEP and lectured locals.s

§  On June 20^th, Al-Shabaab terrorists stormed and overran El-Bur district hospital in Galgadud region and forcibly discharged all the patients including malnourished children and pregnant women to hospitalize 80 of their members who were wounded in Friday’s Bahdo fighting as per State Media.

§  On June 21^st, Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have detonated an improvised explosive device targeting a communications tower in Rhamu, Mandera County, NEP Kenya.

§  On June 22^nd, Civilian casualties were reported as a result of a roadside bomb attack on the outskirts of Kismayo, especially between the Bar area and the area known as Barbara. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility saying it targeted Somali government troops.

§  On June 23^rd, Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for detonating an improvised explosive device targeting a Turkish-trained Gorgor special forces convoy in Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.

§  O June 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have shot and killed a Burundian soldier guarding a military base in general vicinity of Mahaday district of Middle Shabelle and wounded one other.

§  On June 24^th, Al-Shabaab militants stopped a bus heading to Mandera, Kenya from Nairobi and searched for non-locals on Friday. The militants also lectured passengers in Somali language for 2-hours.

§  On June 25^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an operation on SNA operated base in the general vicinity of Dharkenley district of Mogadishu where two soldiers of Federal Government were killed.

§  On June 25^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have targeted and killed a government official identified as Hussein Hassan Gurey in the general vicinity of Afgoye, Lower Shabelle region.

§  On June 27^th, Al-Shabaab militants raided three Jubbaland State security forces bases in Buda Dariq, Garaska and Sangaleer, Kismayo district, Lower Jubba region, southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed to kill at least eight soldiers in the attacks

§  On June 27^th, at least three SNA soldiers were killed and several others, including two journalists, wounded in a landmine blast in Qabno areas of the Mataban district in the Hiran region on Monday. The attack targeted convoy that carrying the governor of the Hiran region and army officials.

§  On June 27^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a direct gun attack on government troops in general vicinity of Daynunay village on the outskirts of Baidoa, Bay region of Somalia killing two soldiers.

§  On June 29^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have conducted mortar shelling and direct attacks on SNA Defense post killing one government soldier in the general vicinity of Weydow, west of the Somalia capital Mogadishu.

§  On June 29^th, In the Lower Jubba region, the Islamist militant claimed to have launched a major offensive against ATMIS base operated by the Kenyan troops in Taabto area but no casualties were reported.

§  On June 30^th, reports from Middle Shabelle indicated that Al-Shabaab jihadist fighters blew up the house of a former minister in the self-proclaimed Hirshabelle administration in Jowhar town.

§  On June 30^th, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed responsibility for targeting the base of the Puntland forces in Galgala area of Bossaso. The fighters claimed to have fired several rounds of mortar shells causing casualties of five soldiers and damage of military property.

Assessments/Observations & Insights

Despite many years of sustained counterterrorism pressure, Somali forces supported by allied AMISOM partners and the U.S, the terrorist threat in East Africa is not degraded. Instead, Al-Shabaab has adopted guerilla tactics and managed to consolidate control of rural areas, while regularly conducting deadly attacks on Somali cities.

Notably the Al-Qaeda associated Al-Shabaab continue to position itself as an alternative authority in Somalia coming up with some interventions such as education, humanitarian interventions and latest being the construction of a hospital. Al-Shabaab claimed to have built and opened a new state of the art Hospital, which includes a Maternity Ward in the Al-Shabaab controlled town of Jilib in the Middle Jubba province of Somalia which will be open for the locals. These interventions are clever ways/strategies by the jihadist group to woo Somali masses to their side/fold.

Al-Shabaab claims credit of having built and opened a new state of the art Hospital, which includes a Maternity Ward in the Al-Shabaab controlled town of Jilib in the Middle Jubba province of Somalia.

Notably, an average of at least one or two attacks are recorded from across the regions of Somalia. Regions mostly targeted in frequent attacks include the capital and the ones in central and southern Somalia where the militant group maintains quite some control. As for Kenya, retaliatory and disruptive incidents linked to Al-Shabaab are also being reported along the volatile border prefectures with Somalia especially; Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu. CT assets in those prefectures continue to be alert, reporting few cases on attempted probes and enemy signatures.

Al-Kataib and Radio Andalus has continually over exaggerated on the number of operations it has conducted in East Africa as well as number of fatalities/casualties caused. Preferred attack types remain the use of IEDs, landmines and roadside bombs. Ambush raids are also gaining traction on the military targets. However, the Islamist militant group through its propaganda media channels. Recently Al-Shabaab propaganda media wing released a video showcasing its recent operations from across Somalia theaters, ranging from small scale to complex operations especially on military positions (Convoys and FOBs).

Conclusion

Continuous monitoring, surveillance and scouting encouraged several meters away from forward operating bases/police outpost for both Kenya and Somalia. Al-Shabaab ultimate goals is to stage attacks on FOBs and Defense Posts, as such counterterrorism assets advised to observe convoy discipline citing Al-Shabaab continuous IED contamination on Military Supply Routes (MSRs).

Counterterrorism assets especially for Kenya have been able to sustain robust counteroperations against the Islamist Al-Shabaab waging surprise attacks in prefectures bordering Somalia. However, counterterrorism operators urged to be alert, collaborate with locals to get the much-needed HUMINT in an attempt to thwart attacks in the future. Threat posture, remains skewed towards military operating bases and defense posts proximal to the border with Somalia, thus security troops/patrol teams are highly advised to maintain an offensive posture.