Good morning, good evening, depending on what time you're listening. A decisive turning point has just occurred in South Kivu. The strategic village of Rugezi, the gateway to the last stronghold of the Twirwaneho and their allies, has been recaptured by the Wazalendo with the support of the FA-RDC air force. This victory, the result of a fierce battle, highlights the determination of Congolese patriots in the face of Rwandan aggression and its proxies.
But beyond the military feat, a fundamental question now faces President Félix Tshisekedi: how far will he go to defend the sovereignty of the DRC? And where does he place his true red line with Kagame and the RDF? It is this burning and vital question that we will explore in this analysis.
Rugezi: A Parable of the Congolese Resistance
In this landlocked village in Fizi territory, the people, through their sons and daughters united under the banner of the Wazalendo, have shown that the DRC is not a land abandoned to the appetites of Kigali. The intense and prolonged fighting revealed not only the ferocity of the Twirwaneho, Ngumino, MaiMai Android, and Red Tabara coalition militias, but also their fragility in the face of a popular will united with the regular army.
Rugazi, due to its geographical location, constitutes a strategic barrier providing access to the high plateau of Minembwe and the rear areas of the strongholds of these armed groups. Its recapture therefore marks a military and psychological shift, likely to precipitate the fall of several of Kagame's auxiliary networks.
Local accounts describe a battle that lasted nearly 24 hours, punctuated by repeated assaults and violent retaliation. But the tactical superiority provided by the FA-RDC air force turned the tide. For the first time in a long time, the Rwandan reinforcements, who had attempted to establish a solid defensive line, were decimated in considerable numbers. This demonstrates that, with a combination of popular courage and modern military means, the aggressor is not invincible.
The AFC/M23's angry statement denouncing the attack only confirms the extent of their setback.
A military victory... but a political test
This victory raises a broader, political question that transcends the battlefield: what is Félix Tshisekedi's real red line? For months, Kigali has been multiplying its provocations, advancing its pawns in North and South Kivu, and attempting to manipulate public opinion with the tired argument of protecting local populations.
For now, Kinshasa has oscillated between occasional military responses and diplomatic appeals. The people's patience is eroding. In the streets of Bukavu, Goma, and Kinshasa, a cry is rising: "Mr. President, how far will you let Kagame trample on our territory?"
For many Congolese, the red line has already been crossed: the three-year occupation of Bunagana, massacres in Kishishe, abuses in the Hauts Plateaux, systematic infiltration of the local administration... Each time, the people see the enemy advancing, testing, and nibbling away, while international appeals are limited to verbal condemnations.
The recent history of the DRC, since the 1996 invasions, shows a consistent pattern: Kigali advances as long as Kinshasa hesitates. To ask Tshisekedi about the red line is to invite him to transform Rugezi's one-off victory into a national strategic doctrine.
The Wazalendo: Symbiosis between Army and People
The Battle of Rugezi also illustrates the central role of the Wazalendo. These patriots, drawn from civil society, villages, and towns, fight without regular pay and often with rudimentary resources. Yet, they embody the anger and resilience of a people who reject humiliation.
Their alliance, sometimes spontaneous, with the FARDC demonstrates that national defense can no longer be solely a matter for the general staff. Through Rugezi, a lesson in popular sovereignty is being given. But it is also a warning: if the political authorities delay in clearly drawing their red line, the people risk taking it upon themselves, with all the risks of anarchy that this entails.
Tshisekedi Faces His Historic Dilemma
Félix Tshisekedi is therefore faced with a crucial choice:
• Persist in an approach of diplomatic restraint, at the risk of seeing Kagame consolidate his positions and trivialize the occupation of Congolese territory.
• Cross the line, declare a clear and irrevocable red line, trigger a total mobilization of the nation, and put an end to the ambiguity.
In the history of great nations under attack, this moment of truth always occurs: France in 1940 against Germany, Angola against South African apartheid, Burkina Faso today against terrorism. The DRC has reached its moment of reckoning.
Rugezi must not remain an isolated episode. It must become a symbol, a rallying cry, proof that victory is possible. But for this to happen, we need:
• A clear political vision,
• A coherent military doctrine,
• And above all, a President who fully assumes his responsibility as Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces.
The Red Line: A Sovereignty Issue
What, Mr. President, is your red line?
• Is it Bunagana, Goma, occupied Bukavu?
• Is it Minembwe liberated?
• Is it the RDF's advance to the outskirts of Bukavu?
Or is it, as some fear, a shifting line, retreating according to diplomatic pressure and compromises imposed by the major powers?
If Tshisekedi wants to be remembered as the President who restored Congo's sovereignty, he must transform Rugezi's victory into the starting point for a total reconquest, and not just a blip.The red line he draws—or refuses to draw—will determine the future of Congo and the image he leaves in history.