If Paul Kagame were to open a new front against Burundi using eastern DRC as a rear base, it would mark the beginning of a far wider regional war. According to multiple political, diplomatic, and military indications, Burundi would not face such an aggression alone. Bujumbura would almost certainly receive robust diplomatic backing, significant political support, and substantial logistical assistance in terms of weapons, equipment, and manpower from regional and extra-regional actors. In that scenario, it is hard to see this new front being easy for Paul Kagame to manage. Rather, it could become the overextension that begins to unravel what many of his critics describe as a brutal satanic regime in Kigali.
At present, Paul Kagame appears to be weighing two highly risky strategic paths. On one side is the option of directly attacking Burundi from positions in and around Uvira, where his RDF–M23 forces are heavily entrenched themselves. From Uvira to Bujumbura is roughly 25 kilometres, a short distance in military terms, especially when staging from occupied territory. On the other side is the continuation of the offensive deeper into the DRC, pushing from Uvira towards Baraka and onward to the port city of Kalemie in Tanganyika Province. This second axis is attractive and being supported by mafias within RDF-M23 network who see this corridor to Katanga as the ultimate prize. As some of Kagame’s minions within RDF-M23 argue, once RDF–M23 forces enter Katanga, historically a hotbed of opposition to President Tshisekedi, the balance of power in Kinshasa could shift dramatically.
Yet both options carry immense risks. An incursion into Burundi would mobilise not only Burundian national sentiment but also regional security arrangements that cannot easily be controlled from Kigali. Burundi’s ruling CNDD-FDD party has its own painful history with attempted regime change, the failed 2015 coup d’état orchestrated by Paul Kagame and led by Burundian military officers who fled to Rwanda after the failed coup d’état. Any new attack traced back to Rwanda's sponsorship would be framed in Bujumbura, in the region and by many in international level, as the culmination of Kagame’s long-standing ambition to reshape the Great Lakes’ political map by force. Far from a quick operation, it could open a prolonged and unpredictable confrontation on Rwanda’s southern flank, stretching the RDF militarily and politically.
The alternative, pushing further into Tanganyika and towards Katanga, is hardly safer. The advance of RDF–M23 elements towards Baraka and potentially Kalemie is already sharpening national resentment inside the DRC. Katanga is not merely another province; it is the epicentre of powerful economic interests, international interests, long-standing political networks, and deep frustrations with central authority. Any perception that foreign troops are opening a path for a “Katangese solution” to Tshisekedi’s government would inflame tensions far beyond the control of Kigali’s planners. What might look like a tactical opportunity for Kagame and his Congolese mafia network within RDF-M23 could quickly transform into a quagmire of competing militias, political factions, and international pressure.
The strategic reality is that each new front increases the probability of miscalculation. Using Uvira as a forward operating base for regime-change ambitions in Burundi would bring Rwanda into more direct confrontation with regional players who have so far attempted to contain the crisis diplomatically. At the same time, pushing deeper into Congolese territory risks unifying disparate Congolese actors against a common external enemy and inviting broader Western sanctions, isolation, or even direct counter-measures. For a leadership already accused by its critics of overreach and impunity, either path could accelerate the erosion of both regional tolerance and internal stability.
In the end, the future of the region hinges on the choices made in Kigali, and on whether strategic restraint prevails over the temptation to gamble on yet another military adventure. From Uvira to Bujumbura is a short distance on the map, but politically and historically it may be the longest and most dangerous road Kagame could choose to take. If he miscalculates, what his opponents call a “satanic regime” may find that the very wars it launched for influence and resources become the catalyst for its own decline. The coming months will reveal whether Rwanda doubles down on confrontation or is forced, by pressure and reality, to retreat from the brink of a wider regional conflagration.
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