Executive Summary
In East and Central Africa, between September 1st and 15th, 2024, the Islamic State (IS) and its affiliated groups continued to escalate violence and expand their operations in Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Mozambique: Islamic State-Mozambique (ISM) increased its activities in the Cabo Delgado region, targeting both civilians and military forces. Notable incidents included attacks in Muidumbe and Mocimboa da Praia districts, with indications of possible expansion into neighboring Malawi. The recruitment of vulnerable youth in Malawi has raised concerns about regional security. ISM’s use of ambushes and hit-and-run tactics suggests adaptability, complicating efforts by Mozambican and Rwandan forces to stabilize the region.
DR Congo: Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) intensified its attacks in Ituri province. Civilians and military forces were targeted in multiple armed assaults, resulting in numerous casualties. The joint efforts between Congolese and Ugandan forces showed some success in neutralizing ISCAP members, but the insurgents’ ability to terrorize local populations remains a significant threat. The situation has led to growing calls for international intervention due to the deteriorating humanitarian conditions in the region.
MOZAMBIQUE
- 11th Sep- Islamic State (IS) insiders reportedly referenced expansion into Malawi after national intelligence services uncovered youth recruitment.
- 10th Sep- ISM led an armed attack against civilians in Negure area of Muidumbe district.
- 05th Sep- a Mozambican military patrol was ambushed and attacked by ISM terrorist in Mocimboa da Praia.
- 04th Sep- ISM conducted an armed attacked against the civilian populace in Negure are in Muidumbe district.
- 01st Sep- several civilians were injured after ISM mounted an armed assault against the population in Chiure in Chiure district.
- 01st Sep- ISM terrorists led an armed assault against Mozambican Army troop in Bugi in Cabo Delgado.
THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO (DRC)
- 11TH Sep- ISCAP militants attacked several villages on the RN4 road near Biakato area IN Ituri province. The villages include Kombokombo, Badulingi and Bamedi.
- 10th Sep- ISCAP militants led an armed attack against civilians on the RN4 in Bandembesi, Ituri. At least three people were killed and several others injured.
- 07th Sep- ISCAP militants captured and execute two Christians in Idohu area in Ituri.
- 04th Sep- Joint efforts between Congolese and Ugandan troops left four ISCAP jihadists neutralized and 9 of their hostages freed, including two of Ugandan nationality.
- 04th Sep- ISCAP terrorists conducted an armed attack against civilians Near Biakato in Ntabiya region in Ituri province.
- 04th Sep- ISCAP terrorists led and armed assaults on civilians near Mamove are in Ituri province.
- 02nd Sep- ISAP militants led an armed assault on Congolese Military vehicle in Bandilika, Ituri Province. At least one civilian and one soldier were killed in the attack.
- 01st Sep- Joint efforts by FARDC supported by the Ugandan army (UPDF) destroyed one of the strongholds of ISCAP terrorists east of Makumo and Biakato, in the Babila-Babombi chiefdom, Mambasa territory, Ituri province. 3 jihadists killed, two computers, a grenade and an AK47 type weapon recovered by the army. It was revealed that these computers served these rebels in connecting to the ISCAP and EI (Individual Enterprise) networks.
ANALYSIS
Mozambique
Malawi’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) recently uncovered a youth recruitment scheme linked to insiders expanding their influence in the country, raising serious security concerns. This discovery comes amid growing regional instability, particularly as neighboring Mozambique grapples with the spread of Islamic State (IS)-aligned insurgents in its northern Cabo Delgado province. The possibility of this recruitment effort being connected to the Islamic State’s broader operations in Southern Africa cannot be overlooked.
The Islamic State in Mozambique (ISIS-M) has been actively recruiting vulnerable youth, leveraging poverty, unemployment, and disillusionment to expand its ranks. As the insurgency in Mozambique continues to destabilize the region, it is likely that IS operatives are seeking to expand beyond Mozambique’s borders into neighboring countries like Malawi. The recruitment of Malawian youth could be part of a wider strategy to establish a foothold and bolster militant forces in the region.These recruitment networks, often masked by community groups or social media campaigns, target young people who are struggling with economic hardships, making them easy prey for extremist ideologies. The discovery of this scheme by the NIS suggests that Malawi, like Mozambique, could become a new target for IS expansion, further exacerbating regional insecurity.
Insurgent activity in Mocímboa da Praia signals a renewed threat in areas thought to be stabilized by Rwandan forces, revealing difficulties in fully securing the region. Islamic State-linked fighters are employing both violence and media propaganda, using attacks to project strength and maintain influence. Targeting key infrastructure like the N380 highway disrupts military and civilian movements, indicating a strategy to weaken government control. Despite recent successes, Rwandan forces remain vulnerable to insurgent ambushes, showing gaps in intelligence and operational awareness. The insurgents’ use of hit-and-run tactics and IEDs highlights their adaptability in avoiding direct confrontations. Rising violence has forced the reduction of UN operations, intensifying the already dire humanitarian crisis in the region.
The increased attacks by ISCAP (Islamic State Central Africa Province) in North Kivu and Ituri highlight the growing threat of extremist violence in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Over the last two months, the group’s brutal tactics, including mass killings, arson, and property destruction, have terrorized civilian populations, with the toll exceeding 500 deaths. This surge of violence, despite the state of siege, exposes the limited capacity of the Congolese government and its military forces to counter ISCAP’s insurgency effectively. Human rights organizations have asked for these regions to be declared disaster areas underscores the severity of the humanitarian crisis, while their appeal to the international community to act against what they term a “genocide” points to growing frustrations over perceived international neglect and the failure of peacekeeping initiatives. The local demands for tax relief and stronger military action reflect the community’s desperation for both immediate and long-term solutions to this enduring conflict.
INSIGHTS AND CONCLUSION
In Mozambique, the Islamic State-Mozambique (ISM) has expanded its activities beyond its traditional strongholds in Cabo Delgado, targeting both civilians and military forces. Notable incidents include repeated attacks in Muidumbe and Mocimboa da Praia districts, with a strategic shift towards destabilizing neighboring Malawi through youth recruitment. This suggests a broader, more regional approach by ISM, aimed at reinforcing its influence and operational capacity across borders. The group’s use of ambushes and IEDs indicates a sophisticated understanding of local dynamics and a deliberate effort to challenge stabilization efforts by Mozambican and Rwandan forces. The intensifying violence has led to a reduction in UN operations, worsening the humanitarian crisis and disrupting key infrastructure.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) has intensified its brutal campaign in Ituri province. The group’s recent attacks, including mass killings and assaults on civilians and military personnel, highlight the severity of the insurgency and the challenges facing Congolese and Ugandan forces. Despite some successes in neutralizing ISCAP members and disrupting their operations, the group’s ability to execute coordinated and lethal attacks reveals significant gaps in counter-insurgency efforts. The ongoing violence has led to severe humanitarian conditions, with calls from human rights organizations for international intervention and disaster area declarations. The local population’s demand for stronger military action and relief measures reflects the urgent need for a comprehensive response to the escalating crisis.
Overall, the period underscores the critical need for enhanced regional and international strategies to counter IS-affiliated groups and address the deepening humanitarian crises in Mozambique and the DRC
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