Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Review for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of September 1st – September 30th, 2024: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

 

 

Executive Summary

In September 2024, Al-Shabaab intensified its insurgency in both Somalia and Kenya, conducting numerous attacks primarily targeting military and security forces. Nearly 60 small to large scale attacks have been recorded for the month under  review. The frequency and intensity of these operations highlight a renewed focus on destabilizing security efforts and demonstrating the group’s operational capabilities.

 

The majority of these attacks involved the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), suicide bombings, and direct assaults on military bases and ambushes on security checkpoints as well on military convoys. Al-Shabaab’s tactics predominantly centered on guerrilla warfare, utilizing hit-and-run attacks, artillery shelling, and ambushes to maximize damage while minimizing their own exposure to counterattacks.

 

IEDs and vehicle-borne IEDs (VBIEDs) were common, often targeting military convoys, police stations, and high-value assets such as airports and government facilities. The group also effectively used artillery fire, particularly in Lower Shabelle, Gedo, and Bay regions. These attacks primarily focused on weakening military morale and undermining government control.

 

Somalia’s regions like Mogadishu, Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Bay, Gedo, and the borders of Mandera, Kenya NEP, saw repeat incidents, indicating a focus on contested zones where government and African Union forces are more vulnerable. The group’s ability to exploit gaps in security and launch attacks on bases, checkpoints, and supply routes indicates the need for enhanced intelligence operations and coordination among regional forces.

 

To thwart future attacks, security assets must prioritize rapid intelligence gathering and counter-IED operations. Reinforcing key installations with counter-mortar systems, increasing air surveillance, and improving the capacity for rapid response will be crucial. Strengthening cooperation between regional forces, especially in border areas, is imperative to deny Al-Shabaab the freedom to maneuver and plan further incursions.

 

 

Terrorism Events:

September 1st – September 30th.

1. September 29, 2024: An explosion operation by Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen targeted government troops in Bardale district, southern Bay region, Somalia. Three soldiers were killed.
2. September 29, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a direct attack on SNA troops near Geedow Noor, on the outskirts of Jowhar, the capital of Middle Shabelle region, Somalia.
3. September 29, 2024: Al-Shabaab forces attacked a Somali police station in Marka, Lower Shabelle region. Casualties were reported.
4. September 28, 2024: Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen forces shelled an SNA camp in El-Waq district, Gedo region. No casualty details were provided.
5. September 28, 2024: In Dhobley, Lower Juba, an Al-Shabaab explosion targeted an SNA checkpoint, killing one soldier and injuring another.
6. September 28, 2024: An explosion claimed by Al-Shabaab in Jowhar, Middle Shabelle, killed one soldier and injured three others.
7. September 27, 2024: Al-Shabaab forces conducted a suicide bombing and gunfire attack on an SNA checkpoint in the Ali Godey area of Dharkenley district, killing three soldiers and looting small arms, including an AK-47.
8. September 27, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an artillery attack on an ATMIS camp in Bulo-Mareer district, Lower Shabelle.
9. September 27, 2024: Al-Shabaab ambushed Somali troops on patrol near No/50 area, Lower Shabelle.
10. September 27, 2024: Al-Shabaab targeted ATMIS assets at Kismayo Airport with artillery fire. No casualties were reported.
11. September 27, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed a direct probe on Kenyan assets in Dhamase, Mandera, Kenya. No casualties were reported.
12. September 26, 2024: Al-Shabaab carried out an explosion in Afgoye, Lower Shabelle, killing two SNA soldiers and injuring eight others.
13. September 26, 2024: Al-Shabaab targeted a JSF military convoy near Kismayo, Lower Juba.
14. September 26, 2024: Al-Shabaab attacked an ATMIS-Ugandan military base in Shalambood area, Lower Shabelle, killing three soldiers and critically injuring two others.
15. September 26, 2024: In Bay region, Al-Shabaab launched a heavy attack on an SNA camp in Eel-Mashrouq, Qansaxdhere district.
16. September 25, 2024: Al-Shabaab forces attacked an SNA camp in the Ilbaq area, central Somalia.
17. September 25, 2024: Al-Shabaab ambushed SNA troops in Oodweyne neighborhood, Dayniile district, Mogadishu.
18. September 24, 2024: An Al-Shabaab explosion targeted a Somali security checkpoint in Bula-Mareer, Lower Shabelle.
19. September 24, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed an IED attack on SNA troops near Barire, Lower Shabelle. Casualties were unknown.
20. September 24, 2024: In Beledweyne, Hiran, an Al-Shabaab attack on an SNA checkpoint injured one soldier.
21. September 23, 2024: Al-Shabaab attacked the base of Riddada troops in Janay Abdalle, near Kismayo. Officers and soldiers were killed.
22. September 23, 2024: In Galgaduud, an explosion by Al-Shabaab burned an Abdibile vehicle, injuring three Riddada troops.
23. September 23, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed an IED attack at Halane Military Base, hitting UN headquarters and the British Embassy in Mogadishu.
24. September 22, 2024: Al-Shabaab attacked a convoy of ATMIS troops traveling between Danow and Golweyn, Lower Shabelle.
25. September 21, 2024: Al-Shabaab launched a heavy attack on an SNA base in Bardhere district, Gedo region. Casualties were reported.
26. September 20, 2024: Al-Shabaab raided two Somali military bases in Bulobarde and Hudur, Hiran and Bakool regions.
27. September 20, 2024: Al-Shabaab targeted Somali military bases in Bariri and El-Barde with IEDs, Afgoye and Bakool regions.
28. September 20, 2024: Al-Shabaab ambushed a Somali military base in Qansahdhere, killing six soldiers and injuring four.
29. September 19, 2024: Al-Shabaab targeted government troops near Eel-Shalle, Mogadishu, killing at least three soldiers and capturing one.
30. September 18, 2024: Al-Shabaab executed two SNA soldiers in a public square in Bulo-Fulay district, Bay region.
31. September 17, 2024: Al-Shabaab assassinated a government officer in Bakara market, Mogadishu, and looted his weapon.
32. September 17, 2024: Al-Shabaab launched an attack on an SNA base in Qansaxdhere, Bay region, taking control of El-Mashrouq camp.
33. September 16, 2024: Al-Shabaab targeted a Kenyan convoy in Lamu region, injuring several people in an IED explosion.
34. September 15, 2024: Al-Shabaab launched artillery attacks on military bases in Hiilweyne and Ilbaq, Middle Shabelle.
35. September 15, 2024: An IED attack targeted a Somali checkpoint in Beledweyne, Hiran, causing casualties.
36. September 15, 2024: A Somali forces member who survived an Al-Shabaab attack in Osoni surrendered in Taakulo, Bakool.
37. September 15, 2024: Al-Shabaab shelled Halane Military Base, Mogadishu, causing casualties.
38. September 15, 2024: Al-Shabaab shelled a Somali military base in Al-Baq, Balaad, Mogadishu.
39. September 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab killed two Somali soldiers and injured two others in an ambush in Hanai Abdi, Kismayo, Lower Juba.
40. September 11, 2024: Al-Shabaab launched a direct attack on an SNA base in Bulo Haji, near Kismayo, Lower Juba.
41. September 10, 2024: An Al-Shabaab explosion targeted government troops near Dinsoor, Bay region.
42. September 9, 2024: An Al-Shabaab roadside explosion in Hudur district, Bakool, targeted ATMIS-Ethiopian troops and SNA soldiers.
43. September 8, 2024: Al-Shabaab attacked various bases across central and southern Somalia, including an Ethiopian troop camp in Halgan, Hiran region.
44. September 8, 2024: Al-Shabaab attacked a US-operated base in Balli-Doogle, Lower Shabelle, reporting casualties among ATMIS troops.
45. September 7, 2024: Several Al-Shabaab mortar shells struck multiple districts of Mogadishu, alarming residents. Two hit Hamarweyne, one impacted Yaaqshid, and two more struck the animal market in Heliwa.
46. September 7, 2024: A bomb attack by Al-Shabaab in Lower Shabelle targeted a convoy of African Union troops, specifically Ugandan forces, near the Number 50 area.
47. September 7, 2024: In Afgoye, Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab forces killed Mohamed Deeq Ibrahim Abdi, also known as “Bakeylow,” an undercover soldier working with intelligence services.
48. September 6, 2024: Al-Shabaab targeted Mogadishu’s largest international military base, Halane, with an improvised explosive device (IED).
49. September 6, 2024: Al-Shabaab launched a mortar attack on the base of Somali Federal Government (SFG) and Jubbaland forces in Ceelwaaq, Gedo region.
50. September 5, 2024: Several mortar shells targeted Balidogle Airport, which houses American troop trainers and the Bangaraaf forces, with Al-Shabaab claiming responsibility.
51. September 5, 2024: In the Saakow district of Middle Jubba, the Mujahideen executed captured Somali soldiers in a public square under Islamic court orders.
52. September 5, 2024: A civilian was injured in Mogadishu’s Wadajir district after a mortar hit their home. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the shelling.
53. September 4, 2024: A planned Al-Shabaab operation in Baardheere, Gedo region, resulted in the assassination of a Somali National Army (SNA) soldier and the seizing of his weapon.
54. September 3, 2024: An Al-Shabaab ambush targeted Ugandan forces transporting supplies near Jiiro Gaaljecel, Lower Shabelle, resulting in reported injuries.
55. September 3, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed coordinated attacks on the ATMIS-Ugandan Forward Operating Base (FOB) in Qoryooley and on SNA troops near Waajid, seizing military equipment.
56. September 2, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants attacked SNA troops stationed at Buulo-xaaji bridge near Kismayo, killing two soldiers and injuring six others.
57. September 2, 2024: An Al-Shabaab ambush on an ATMIS-Ethiopian military base in Baydhabo resulted in six Ethiopian soldiers killed and two injured.
58. September 1, 2024: Al-Shabaab launched an attack on Somali government troops at Iidow-Dhigaal, Baydhabo, injuring one soldier.
59. September 1, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants launched a coordinated attack on Ugandan forces stationed at Baraawe district airport, with no casualties reported.

 

 

Analysis, Observation & Insights

 

The recorded terrorist events for the month of September demonstrate a surge in Al-Shabaab’s attacks across Somalia and parts of Kenya. The group’s operational tempo remains high, with consistent strikes targeting both government and international military forces, such as Somali National Army (SNA) and ATMIS forces. Their attacks have also extended to regional military assets, including Ugandan and Ethiopian troops. This pattern highlights Al-Shabaab’s sustained capacity to engage in asymmetric warfare, often targeting security infrastructure to destabilize the region.

 

Al-Shabaab’s favored attack types involve a mixture of direct assaults, bombings, and ambushes. These operations are regularly executed with precision using improvised explosive devices (IEDs), mortars, and small arms fire. The group is increasingly employing IEDs in high-traffic military areas, checkpoints, and convoys, underlining their preference for low-cost, high-impact operations that result in significant casualties and infrastructure damage. This shows Al-Shabaab’s reliance on explosives to disrupt military movements and diminish the morale of both domestic and foreign forces.

 

Mortar and artillery strikes have also been a common tactic, targeting high-value locations such as military bases and airports. This includes coordinated mortar attacks on bases like the ATMIS-Ugandan Forward Operating Base in Qoryooley and Kismayo Airport. These indirect fire tactics indicate Al-Shabaab’s continued ability to maintain an offensive stance while minimizing direct confrontation, particularly against fortified or better-equipped units, such as ATMIS contingents.

 

Geographically, Al-Shabaab’s attacks concentrate in the southern and central regions of Somalia, with recurrent incidents in Lower Shabelle, Gedo, Bay, and Jubaland. Towns like Kismayo, Jowhar, and Mogadishu remain frequent targets, underscoring their strategic importance for control over supply routes and urban centers. The attacks on Kenyan troops in Lamu and Mandera counties, while fewer, indicate Al-Shabaab’s intent to expand operations across borders and challenge Kenyan security forces.

 

To counter Al-Shabaab’s growing threat, security forces must prioritize bolstering defensive capabilities in areas with repeat attacks, focusing on intelligence gathering to anticipate IED placements and ambushes. Enhanced perimeter defense around military bases, checkpoints, and supply convoys is crucial, along with rapid response units to contain indirect fire incidents. International forces, including ATMIS, should further coordinate with local authorities to disrupt Al-Shabaab’s logistical networks and neutralize its capabilities.

conclusion

 

In conclusion, the pattern of attacks suggests that Al-Shabaab will continue to engage in hit-and-run tactics while exploiting vulnerabilities in military infrastructure. The forecast for the coming months points to continued IED and mortar attacks, with the group likely to focus on high-profile targets to draw attention to their cause and erode the region’s security. Security forces must adapt to these evolving threats by enhancing counter-IED capabilities and improving coordination across sectors.

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Regards to S.Y.A