US sanctions on Kigali have forced the AFC/M23 to retreat to Kamanyola, a strategic stronghold on the border with Rwanda, the rebellion's sponsor. This retreat allows the rebels to stall for time while Kinshasa seeks to tighten sanctions on Kigali.
Back to square one in Kamanyola. On May 9, 10, and 11, the AFC/M23 rebels unilaterally withdrew from the Ruzizi Plain and its hills. Their troops relocated to Kamanyola, 75 kilometers north of Uvira, the second largest city in South Kivu, which they had briefly occupied in December 2025. 75 kilometers is the distance to which the United States had demanded the rebels withdraw. The capture of Uvira was seen as a real humiliation by Washington, which had just brokered the peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda, the country supporting the rebellion. Five months later, the AFC/M23 returned to Kamanyola, its initial position, which it had occupied since the fall of Bukavu in February 2025.
US sanctions that “hurt” Kigali
This repositioning of the rebels is not really a surprise. American pressure has recently intensified on their Rwandan backers. Last March, Washington decided to place several high-ranking officers, as well as the entire Rwandan army, under sanctions. This unprecedented move is beginning to weigh heavily on Kigali, where, according to the website Africa Intelligence, a trip by President Paul Kagame to the United States was canceled “directly linked to tensions between his country and that of Donald Trump.” Recently, the Rwandan president acknowledged that the American sanctions "hurt," while maintaining his stance on the conflict in the DRC.
Demonstrating a certain "good faith"
Under pressure, the withdrawal of the AFC/M23 is therefore a sign of goodwill from the rebellion, which has decided to play the "good student" after another round of unproductive negotiations in Switzerland with the Congolese government. The ceasefire and its verification mechanism, as well as the prisoner release agreed upon in Montreux, have still not materialized, and fighting has never ceased on the ground, particularly in South Kivu, which remains the main focal point of the conflict. The rebels have ceded the initiative in the clashes to the Wazalendo, the Congolese army's auxiliary militias, allowing the rebels to demonstrate a certain "good faith" in respecting the ceasefire. The AFC/M23 denounces daily attacks by Wazalendo and Congolese army drones, particularly in the Banyamulenge-populated area of Minembwe.
Kamanyola, a key position for the AFC/M23
While the rebels' retreat to Kamanyola is indeed a consequence of American pressure, it changes little in the balance of power on the ground. Located on the border of the DRC, Rwanda, and Burundi, Kamanyola remains the strategic gateway to the Ruzizi Plain, as well as to the Highlands. The proximity of the Rwandan border allows the rebels to easily receive logistical support in the form of supplies, weapons, and troops from Kigali. Kamanyola also forms a buffer zone to protect Bukavu, particularly from the Burundian army. Finally, the rebels remain pre-positioned to intervene in the Highlands should the situation of the Banyamulenge population deteriorate again.
A Very Meager American Pressure on the Military Ground
Kinshasa views the rebel withdrawal from Kamanyola as another victory for its diplomatic strategy focused exclusively on American pressure. In March 2025, Washington pushed the AFC/M23 to leave the Walikale sector, primarily to secure the Alphamin mining site, a company that was, at the time, American and Canadian-owned. In December 2025, the United States succeeded in liberating Uvira from rebel occupation. Finally, in early May 2026, American pressure pushed the AFC/M23 back to Kamanyola, its positions prior to the Uvira offensive. The territorial gains are meager, but allow Kinshasa to claim victory and continue to mask its failures on the military front.
Towards a Future Withdrawal of Rwandan Soldiers?
The return to Kamanyola allows the rebels to buy time, avoid a possible new round of sanctions, particularly against Kigali, but above all, to continue stalling. Meanwhile, the rebellion continues training its officers and new fighters in the areas it controls. To further demonstrate its goodwill, the next step could be the withdrawal of Rwandan army personnel present on Congolese soil as part of the "defensive measures" implemented by Kigali. This would buy the rebels even more time. For its part, Kinshasa,With its only diplomatic card in hand, the DRC is trying to convince Washington to increase sanctions on Rwanda. A bill proposed by a Democratic congressman seeks to impose sanctions for "any violation of the peace agreements concluded in Washington between the DRC and Rwanda." Paul Kagame is clearly the target. But in the meantime, the conflict remains frozen, and the rebels do not seem willing to relinquish Kamanyola, which allows them to maintain control of Bukavu.
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